FORTUNE --

When gold prices turn skyward, like they did for the past two weeks before some recent flattening, some mix of greed, fear and uncertainty are likely ruling the market. What better time to remember what really drives prices over the long-term: market fundamentals. Through that lens, gold might not be such a hot investment.

The gold market works much like any other, with supply and demand eventually equalizing, and runaway prices returning to long-term averages. Since 1980, the price of gold has averaged about $440 an ounce in U.S. dollars. But much like U.S. home prices over this decade, it can take some time for prices to return to normal.

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Barclays Wealth in London predicts gold will fall to a fair value of $800 an ounce by 2012, as investors eventually dump it for riskier trades; Societe Generale, the French bank, is betting a correction happens faster, predicting $800 gold by the end of 2010.